The Fourth Major of 2024: The Open Championship at Royal Troon
The final major of the year takes us to Scotland and Royal Troon for the first time since 2016
The fourth and final major of the 2024 season is headed to Royal Troon Golf Club. Last year’s Open Championship saw Brian Harman win his first career major at Royal Liverpool.
The last time an Open Championship had a non-first-time winner was Francesco Molinari in 2018 at Carnoustie.
This year’s Open could see another first-time winner with plenty of potential first-time winners trending in the right direction. Let’s get into all things Royal Troon and the 2024 Open Championship.
A Look at Royal Troon
This is the 10th time that this major has come to Royal Troon. It’s happened twice since 2000 and three times since 1997. Here are some quick facts…
Founded in 1878
45-hole private club
Signature holes: 8 & 11
7,385 yards & Par 71
Par-5 Sixth Hole: 623 yards (22 yards longer than in 2016)
Previous years hosted: 1923, 1950, 1962, 1973, 1982, 1989, 1997, 2004, and 2016
British golf designer Martin Ebert has been a major part of consulting on the architecture of Troon over the past 20 years. He’s held the same position at other courses in the Open rota (Turnberry, Royal Portrush, Carnoustie, Royal Lytham & St. Anne’s, Royal St. George’s, Royal Birkdale, and Royal Liverpool). This note is via the PGA Tour website, “For this year’s Open Championship, Ebert’s edits included a half-dozen back tees that added 201 yards to the course. The three par 5s have all been lengthened. The course has been lengthened 2.8% since it last hosted The Open eight years ago, which corresponds exactly to the additional 2.8% of distance the average PGA TOUR player has gained in that span.”
Keep an eye out on the 8th hole this year. It’s the postage stamp hole of the track. The back nine is over 300 yards longer than the front nine with six par 4s. It’s going to be a proper test for the players.
What Does the Data Say?
This course will put an emphasis on approach play with many of the top course fits being quality approach players this season. According to Data Golf, Brendan Todd is the top course fit for Troon. He’s an accurate driver, good around the green, a solid approach player, and decent putter.
Notable players who don’t have a great profile for this course are Sahith Theegala, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Milton Finau, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Cam Young, and MORE. This doesn’t tell us the entire story, but it’s interesting to review this data. The top players who fit Troon and could win this week include Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, Tommy Fleetwood, and Scottie Scheffler.
Here’s a fun nugget from Data Golf: Royal Troon’s highest similarity score courses include Albany, Cog Hill, The Summit Club, Warwick Hills, Olympia Fields CC (Hovland?), Hamilton, St George’s G&CC, TPC Scottsdale, Annadale GC, and TPC Deere Run. Driving distance will NOT be a major factor this year at Troon. Look no further than non-distance drivers like Morikawa and Harman, who have won Open Championships in the past few years.
Lining Up Some Bets
Here are FIVE possible winners (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
TOP 5: Collin Morikawa (+330)
TOP 10: Brian Harman (+500)
TOP 20: Russell Henley (+320)
TOP 40: Phil Mickelson (+250)
FULL TOURNAMENT MATCHUP: Nicolai Hojgaard +170 over Alex Noren
Power Ranking the Top 15 in the Field
This is based upon form, experience, and feeling.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER
RORY MCILROY
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU
VIKTOR HOVLAND
XANDER SCHAUFFELE
COLLIN MORIKAWA
LUDVIG ABERG
TOMMY FLEETWOOD
TYRELL HATTON
JON RAHM
PATRICK CANTLAY
JUSTIN THOMAS
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
CAM SMITH
MAX HOMA
Shoutout to Todd Hamilton
Glendale, Illinois’ own Todd Hamilton won the Open Championship in 2004 at Royal Troon.
The above photo is a photo and scorecard he signed from my local club. Shoutout to Edgewood Golf Club in Central Illinois where I will one day hold the course record.
Final Prediction
This is the toughest major to predict this season. I absolutely knocked it out of the park with my Bryson DeChambeau pick at Pinehurst last month.
Let’s get different with this one…
